ING’s Transport and Logistics outlook for a post-pandemic world

The global transport and logistics sector has been heavily impacted by the pandemic. At the same time, underlying sub-sector development shows historic differences. 2021 will bring a significant bounce for road transport, shipping and logistics services (goods).

Recovery in aviation and public transport will only start in 2021 and will take years. Even after the worst year in history, the first quarter of 2021 isn't providing much relief for the aviation sector. However we expect the recovery to start in the second half of 2021, but the sector is unlikely to fully recover before 2024-2025. In the short-term, the real question is if the sector will be back this summer? Unfortunately, the jury is still out.

The shipping industry will benefit from world trade recovery in 2021, with average seaborne trade volumes expected to end up higher than their pre-pandemic levels. Container rates remain relatively high amidst stretched supply chains, yet tanker rates have fallen to record lows as global fuel demand is unlikely to fully return.