Forecasts
Our global economic and financial forecasts
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.
Growth (GDP)
Last updated: 12th December
| QoQ% Annualised | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 1.4 |
| France | 1.6 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| UK | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Canada | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Australia | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| Eurozone | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Austria | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Spain | 3.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Netherlands | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Belgium | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Greece | 1.1 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Portugal | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Sweden | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Norway | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| YoY% | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Croatia | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Czech Republic | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Hungary | -0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| Poland | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Romania | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Turkey | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 4.0 |
| Serbia | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Azerbaijan | 5.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Kazakhstan | 5.6 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Russia | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Ukraine | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.5 |
| China | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| India | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| Korea | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Philippines | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Singapore | 5.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Taiwan | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Inflation (CPI)
Last updated: 5th December
| YoY% | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Japan | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| France | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| UK | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Italy | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Canada | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Australia | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Eurozone | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Austria | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Spain | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Netherlands | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Belgium | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Greece | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Portugal | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Sweden | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Norway | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Bulgaria | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Croatia | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Czech Republic | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Hungary | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Poland | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Romania | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Turkey | 49.4 | 44.8 | 34.7 | 30.8 | 26.0 | 24.7 | 17.3 | 58.6 | 29.9 | 20.3 |
| Serbia | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| Azerbaijan | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Kazakhstan | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| Russia | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 5.1 |
| Ukraine | 7.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
| China | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| India | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Indonesia | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Korea | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Philippines | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| Singapore | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Taiwan | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Policy rates
Last updated: 9th December
| G10 (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (upper bound) | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Eurozone (deposit rate) | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Japan (upper bound) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| UK | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Sweden | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Norway | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Canada | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Australia | 4.35 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 3.60 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.60 |
| EMEA (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| Czech Republic | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Hungary | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| Poland | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Romania | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| Turkey | 47.50 | 40.00 | 34.00 | 31.00 | 28.00 | 25.00 | 22.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| Serbia | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Azerbaijan | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.50 | 7.75 |
| Kazakhstan | 15.25 | 15.25 | 15.25 | 14.25 | 13.25 | 12.75 | 12.25 | 12.00 | 11.75 |
| Russia | 25.00 | 25.00 | 23.00 | 21.00 | 19.00 | 17.00 | 15.00 | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| Ukraine | 13.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Asia (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| China (7 day reverse repo rate) | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| India | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Indonesia | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Korea | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Philippines | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Taiwan | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
3 month rates
Last updated: 9th December
*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; T-bill rate for the Philippines; and 3-month interbank rates for others
| G10 (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Eurozone | 2.85 | 2.40 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Japan | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| UK | 4.55 | 4.05 | 3.55 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Switzerland | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Canada | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Australia | 4.40 | 4.15 | 3.90 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| EMEA (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| Czech Republic | 3.95 | 3.70 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Hungary | 6.50 | 6.35 | 6.10 | 5.85 | 5.60 | 5.35 | 5.10 | 4.85 | 4.60 |
| Poland | 5.90 | 5.87 | 5.53 | 5.12 | 4.95 | 4.62 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.45 |
| Romania | 5.90 | 5.90 | 5.65 | 5.45 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 4.90 | 4.70 | 4.65 |
| Turkey | 45.20 | 40.70 | 34.75 | 31.20 | 28.80 | 25.10 | 23.50 | 20.95 | 20.20 |
| Serbia | 4.70 | 4.50 | 4.45 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Kazakhstan | 14.75 | 14.95 | 15.05 | 14.05 | 13.05 | 12.55 | 12.05 | 11.80 | 11.55 |
| Russia | 24.00 | 24.00 | 22.50 | 20.50 | 18.50 | 16.50 | 14.75 | 12.90 | 11.00 |
| Asia (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| China* | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.65 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| India | 7.20 | 6.90 | 6.70 | 6.55 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 |
| Indonesia | 6.80 | 6.40 | 6.10 | 5.80 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Korea | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.45 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Philippines* | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Singapore | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Taiwan* | 1.65 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
10-year yields
Last updated: 5th December
*Apart from ECB deposit rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields
| G10 (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US: Fed funds | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| 3M | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| 2Y | 4.05 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| 5Y | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.65 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| 10Y | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| 30Y | 4.45 | 4.55 | 5.10 | 5.35 | 5.90 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.35 |
| ECB deposit* | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| 3M | 2.85 | 2.40 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 2Y | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| 5Y | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| 10Y | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| 30Y | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.60 | 2.75 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Japan | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| France | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Italy | 3.40 | 3.35 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Spain | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| UK | 4.25 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Netherlands | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.55 | 2.65 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Belgium | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Austria | 2.60 | 2.55 | 2.75 | 2.85 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Ireland | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.65 | 2.75 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Portugal | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Switzerland | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sweden | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| Norway | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Finland | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Canada | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Australia | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| EMEA (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| Bulgaria | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Czech Republic | 4.00 | 3.95 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Hungary | 6.25 | 6.60 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 7.15 | 7.35 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 |
| Poland | 5.67 | 6.01 | 6.08 | 5.96 | 5.91 | 5.72 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.66 |
| Romania | 7.10 | 7.00 | 6.80 | 6.65 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Russia | 18.50 | 18.00 | 16.50 | 16.30 | 14.50 | 14.00 | 12.50 | 11.00 | 9.50 |
| Turkey | 27.50 | 24.75 | 21.70 | 20.70 | 20.10 | 16.90 | 16.10 | 15.60 | 15.40 |
| Asia (%) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| China | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| India | 6.75 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.35 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Indonesia | 6.80 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| Korea | 2.65 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Philippines | 6.00 | 5.90 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Singapore | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Taiwan | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
FX
Last updated: 5th December
| G10 (End period) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | EUR/USD | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Japan | USD/JPY | 155 | 155 | 157 | 158 | 160 | 150 |
| UK | GBP/USD | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Japan | EUR/JPY | 163 | 161 | 163 | 164 | 163 | 158 |
| UK | EUR/GBP | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Canada | USD/CAD | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Australia | AUD/USD | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| New Zealand | NZD/USD | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Switzerland | EUR/CHF | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| Sweden | EUR/SEK | 11.50 | 11.40 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.50 | 11.30 |
| Norway | EUR/NOK | 11.60 | 11.40 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.40 | 11.10 |
| Denmark | EUR/DKK | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 |
| EMEA (End period) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| Serbia | EUR/RSD | 117.00 | 116.90 | 116.85 | 116.85 | 116.80 | 116.60 |
| Czech Republic | EUR/CZK | 25.20 | 25.15 | 25.10 | 25.00 | 24.95 | 24.65 |
| Hungary | EUR/HUF | 413 | 420 | 412 | 418 | 420 | 424 |
| Poland | EUR/PLN | 4.25 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 4.34 |
| Romania | EUR/RON | 4.98 | 4.98 | 5.04 | 5.04 | 5.05 | 5.09 |
| Turkey | USD/TRY | 35.00 | 37.20 | 39.00 | 40.60 | 42.00 | 48.00 |
| South Africa | USD/ZAR | 18.00 | 18.25 | 18.50 | 19.00 | 19.50 | 19.00 |
| Israel | USD/ILS | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| CIS (End period) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| Azerbaijan | USD/AZN | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Kazakhstan | USD/KZT | 515 | 510 | 505 | 500 | 510 | 520 |
| Russia | USD/RUB | 105.00 | 100.00 | 98.00 | 105.00 | 110.00 | 115.00 |
| EUR/RUB | 110.25 | 104.00 | 101.92 | 109.20 | 112.20 | 120.75 | |
| Ukraine | USD/UAH | 41.20 | 41.50 | 41.50 | 41.70 | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| Latam (End period) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| Brazil | USD/BRL | 5.80 | 5.90 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Mexico | USD/MXN | 21.00 | 21.50 | 22.00 | 22.50 | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| Chile | USD/CLP | 975 | 1000 | 1000 | 1025 | 1050 | 1050 |
| Asia (End period) | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| China | USD/CNY | 7.25 | 7.20 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.35 | 7.40 |
| India | USD/INR | 84.50 | 84.00 | 84.00 | 84.00 | 83.50 | 85.00 |
| Indonesia | USD/IDR | 15800 | 15500 | 15000 | 15000 | 14750 | 16000 |
| Korea | USD/KRW | 1425 | 1450 | 1450 | 1425 | 1375 | 1425 |
| Philippines | USD/PHP | 58.50 | 58.50 | 58.50 | 58.00 | 58.00 | 57.50 |
| Singapore | USD/SGD | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| Taiwan | USD/TWD | 32.40 | 31.80 | 31.40 | 31.70 | 32.00 | 30.40 |
Commodities
Last updated: 5th November
| Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 73 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 67 | 80 | 69 | 70 |
| Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) | 40 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 28 |
| Metal Forecasts (avg) | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/t) | 9,100 | 8,900 | 8,700 | 8,900 | 9,000 | 9,338 | 8,900 | 9,000 |
| Aluminium ($/t) | 2,700 | 2,650 | 2,600 | 2,550 | 2,550 | 2,457 | 2,625 | 2,500 |
| Nickel ($/t) | 16,000 | 15,800 | 15,500 | 15,500 | 15,500 | 17,252 | 15,700 | 16,000 |
| Zinc ($/t) | 3,150 | 3,150 | 3,050 | 3,100 | 3,050 | 2,836 | 3,110 | 3,000 |
| Lead ($/t) | 2,100 | 2,050 | 2,000 | 2,050 | 2,100 | 2,119 | 2,050 | 2,050 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 2,800 | 2,800 | 2,750 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,397 | 2,760 | 2,700 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 31.00 | 32.00 | 31.50 | 31.00 | 30.50 | 28.50 | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| Iron Ore ($/t) | 100.00 | 95.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 | 95.00 | 107.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 |