In case you missed it: Self-fulfilling prophecy?

It's been a rollercoaster week, but parliament has yet again rejected Theresa May’s deal on the day the UK was meant to leave the EU. In Europe, it seems the ECB is prepping for the new reality of lower interest rates for longer. And the US yield curve inversion has raised fresh concerns about recession risks, but beware of the self-fulfilling prophecy

In this bundle

United Kingdom

What next after PM May’s third Brexit defeat

Out of all the options, we think parliament is most likely to rally behind the customs union option in the second round of 'indicative votes' on…

Opinion

By James Knightley

US: Heading for recession?

The US bond market is seemingly worried about a slowdown. While not our base case, a prolonged inversion of the yield curve runs the risk of becoming a…

China

China: How opening up the financial sector could affect the yuan

China's Central Bank Governor Yi Gang says there's further room to open up the country's financial sector. But we don't think that…

ECB: Never a dull moment

The latest comments from members of the European Central Bank have suddenly given rise to rate cut fantasies. Don’t get carried away

Indonesia

Indonesia: Reforms needed for lift-off

Indonesia has seen growth plateau at the 5% range since 2016. After targeting 7% since taking office in 2014, President Jokowi looks to secure a fresh…

US growth: take a step back

US 4Q GDP was revised down to 2.2% and 1Q19 growth is likely to be even lower. This will fuel talk of Fed rate cuts, but we still think there are reasons…

Dutch exporters, already feeling the Brexit pinch

The Netherlands

United Kingdom

Dutch exporters, already feeling the Brexit pinch

Since the Brexit referendum, the growth of Dutch exports of goods to the UK has virtually come to a standstill while exports of goods to other countries…

and

India

India: Rising odds of another rate cut

We expect a 25 basis point rate cut next week from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in line with the consensus. However, we aren’t convinced that…