In case you missed it: Rocky road ahead

OPEC and Russia agree to cut oil production, US firms are beginning to feel the pinch, Belgium's government is on the edge and after a decade of negotiations the Swiss snub the EU risking financial sanctions. Plus, we bring you some of the best-and-worst-case scenarios for the global economy next year

In this bundle

2019: The best of times, the worst of times

As we look ahead to 2019, we're hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Our base case calls for a slowdown in economic growth. But with so…

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United States

US payrolls: Firms feeling the pinch

November payrolls were soft, but this was partly driven by the lack of available workers to hire. Wage pressures are building and will keep core inflation…

Eurozone: It’s the end of QE as we know it…

…and we will be fine as the European Central Bank is gradually shelving the controversial bond-buying programme

Report FX

2019 FX Outlook: Peak Dollar

The big question for 2019 is when will global asset markets be released from the stranglehold of high US interest rates and the strong dollar? We think…

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Belgium

Political storm brewing in Belgium

A political crisis has developed in Belgium over its position on the UN migration pact. Will this crisis cause the government to fall? The answer is…

Soybeans: How much is “substantial”?

The soybean market was eagerly awaiting the outcome of trade talks between China and the US at the G20 summit, and discussions were constructive with the…

Eurozone: Filibuster on Eurozone reforms continues

Another red-eye meeting of Eurozone finance ministers shows how difficult it is to agree on further Eurozone reforms. Only another existential crisis…

United States

China

G20: Don’t cry victory yet

The ceasefire between the world’s largest trading nations is positive because the signals coming from the preceding negotiations were rather…

Credit

Russia

Russia 2019: Risk-averse mode

With persistent external uncertainties, we expect Russian consumers and corporates to remain risk-averse in 2019. Any monetary stimulus is unlikely given…