In case you missed it: Undone by a pandemic

As a decade of job growth in the US comes to an end, a recession is not the correct word of what we are currently witnessing. It is an abrupt stop of economic activity, from 100 to zero in just a few days or weeks. A virus-driven ice age. There's no point pretending we know exactly how the economy will evolve in the next 18 months, but we've developed some scenarios

In this bundle

Report

Covid-19: The scenarios, the lockdown, the reaction, the recovery

Our April Economic Update brings you economic truths of the Covid-19 crisis, our scenarios for the future and the reality of living in what sounds like…

United States

US jobs report - how bad could it get?

Today's US employment report broke the run of 113 consecutive monthly job gains, but the timing of collection meant it missed the carnage of the past…

Four scenarios for the global economy after Covid-19

We map out the hit to the global economy and possible path for recovery under four different coronavirus scenarios

and

Metals: Bumpy road in search for the bottom

Metals will be seeking to rebalance after the shocks from both the supply and demand-side. They are likely to be on a bumpy road while searching for the…

Report Credit

EM Sovereigns: Covid-19 to leave behind a legacy of debt distress

While the past week has seen some recovery across risk assets on the back of global fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, permanent damage remains for…

Eurozone: GDP contraction to rival great recession

With most eurozone countries in partial or full lockdown, GDP contraction this year is likely to rival the Great Recession. While the European Central…

Rates

European rescue alphabet soup and market impact

The past few weeks have seen a flurry of proposals for EU members to jointly finance the coronavirus-related fiscal costs. We look at the latest…

China

China’s central bank to cut the targeted RRR again and again

China's central bank plans to cut the targeted Required Reserve Ratio again, but this time only for smaller banks. We look at how effective this…

Central and Eastern Europe FX: Negative growth, more easing ahead

All CEE countries should experience negative growth in 2020, with 2Q20 constituting the bottom. All banks in the region are in full easing mode. We expect…

Thailand

Thailand: It’s going to be the worst since the 1998 Asian crisis

We cut our forecast of Thailand’s GDP growth in 2020 to -4.3% from -0.8%, the worst year for the economy since the 1998 Asian economic crisis. We…