In case you missed it: The surprising and predictable

Central banks in Turkey and Russia surprised investors this week with bolder policy action than many expected while the ECB remained on autopilot and the Bank of England did nothing to change our view that rates will stay on hold until after Brexit. Elsewhere, the US-China trade spat continued to rumble on while punishment beckons for Hungary...

In this bundle

Turkey

Turkey: Central bank strikes with a strong rate hike

At the September MPC, the Central Bank of Turkey hiked the policy rate to 24% with a recalibration of monetary policy in a response to weakness in the…

Russia

Russia surprises with a 25bp rate hike

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) surprised markets by raising its key rate by 25bp to 7.50% today. Future rate hikes will depend on how inflation and…

and

The ECB’s taper autopilot is still on

The European Central Bank delivers the first step towards exiting QE; the autopilot's still on and forward guidance on rates remains in place

United Kingdom

BoE: Steady course in stormy waters

After hiking rates in August, the Bank of England kept its policy stance unchanged at its September meeting. We continue to expect that the BoE will…

China

China: Downgrading GDP growth rate

China is once again using infrastructure investment to avoid an economic slowdown. Sound familiar? It doesn't matter. We're still downgrading our…

China

Changes in the automobile sector in China – an effect of the trade war?

China has hiked tariffs on US imported vehicles but simultaneously lowered tariffs on automobiles from other countries alongside promoting foreign…

Hungary

The EU moves to punish Hungary

Punishment beckons for Hungary for allegedly breaching core European values. Economic reaction has so far been muted, but reputational damage could hit…

Sweden

Swedish elections: Winner takes nothing

A very tight vote leads to a deadlocked parliament. Lengthy negotiations likely lie ahead, with little prospect of a strong government. The economy (and…

Think Forward Initiative

When ‘nudging’ becomes ‘sludging’

Are the choices we make ours alone or have we subconsciously been 'nudged' into them by clever marketing? And is this a good thing for society? We…