Global Macro Outlook 2021: The darkness before the dawn
What a year! As this wild and turbulent year draws to a close, we look back on how Covid-19 has sent the global economy into the worst slump in a century…
The US economy faces major near-term challenges, but longer-term we think the market is too cautious on its prospects. A vaccine, a major fiscal stimulus,…
A double-dip in the eurozone has become almost inevitable. But despite all the government support to soften the blow to the economy, the structural face…
In its fourteenth five year plan, China has outlined a vision for achieving high-quality growth. Here's what it means in practice
Fiscal and monetary policymakers have ripped up the rule book in Asia this year to battle the pandemic, but the strength of the recovery in 2021 will…
The end of the post-Brexit transition period poses a fresh challenge for the economic recovery, although we're unlikely to see a Covid-style GDP…
This is it! The final year for Libor, at least for the US, the UK and some others. Euribor continues, but the rest need to get ready for…
World trade will not be far from news headlines in 2021, and despite the new leadership both in the US and soon at the World Trade Organisation, this is…
Two big themes in 2020 were Brexit and Joe Biden's election win. We map out their broader implications for economic and foreign policy in 2021
In the next twelve months, from Peru to India, the Netherlands to Australia, many elections and political events have the potential to shape the economic…
Global central banks have had a busy 2020, but their job is far from over. What tools do policymakers have left to deploy and what should we expect from…
Fiscal deficits have surged to unprecedented levels and government debt in the eurozone is expected to reach the highest level since 2014. While in the…
Once winter has passed, the CEE region should brace itself for a meaningful economic rebound from 2Q21 onwards but the prospects of a reflation narrative…
Brazil’s forceful policy reaction to the pandemic was crucial to mitigate its economic impact but it requires some correction in 2021. As it stands,…
Philippine GDP growth contracted 10% in the first three quarters of the year and there's little hope of a big turnaround in 2021
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