THINK economic and financial analysis
Commodities, Food & Agri
Bundles
4 December 2023

Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism

Supportive fundamentals, lingering geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve easing suggest the complex will trend higher next year. However, with plenty of uncertainty over global growth, we hold a cautiously optimistic view for commodities in 2024

Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism

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Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism
Commodities, Food & Agri
Energy

Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism


We hold a moderately supportive view on large parts of the complex for 2024

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

OPEC+ policy key for oil outlook
Commodities, Food & Agri
Energy

OPEC+ policy key for oil outlook


It's all about what OPEC+ decides to do next

Warren Patterson

Comfortable European gas market
Commodities, Food & Agri
Energy

Comfortable European gas market


Europe should finish the 23/24 heating season with above-average storage, which suggests a fairly neutral view for European prices

Warren Patterson

Subdued carbon
Commodities, Food & Agri
Energy

Subdued carbon


Weaker demand and increased renewables have weighed on the market, and pressure is likely to persist next year

Warren Patterson

China stimulus optimism supports iron ore prices
Commodities, Food & Agri

China stimulus optimism supports iron ore prices


We expect iron ore prices to remain supported into 2024 amid property sector support and optimism for a recovery in China

Ewa Manthey

Uncertain global economic recovery looms over copper
Commodities, Food & Agri

Uncertain global economic recovery looms over copper


Uncertain global economic recovery looms over copper

Ewa Manthey

Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappoints
Commodities, Food & Agri

Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappoints


Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappoints

Ewa Manthey

Nickel’s underperformance to continue
Commodities, Food & Agri

Nickel’s underperformance to continue


Nickel’s underperformance is set to continue

Ewa Manthey

Gold to hit fresh highs in 2024
Commodities, Food & Agri

Gold to hit fresh highs in 2024


We believe safe-haven demand and the US interest rate outlook will keep gold prices supported in 2024

Ewa Manthey

Tighter wheat, looser corn and soybeans
Commodities, Food & Agri

Tighter wheat, looser corn and soybeans


We expect corn prices to remain under pressure, while a tighter wheat market should provide some support to wheat

Warren Patterson

Softs volatility to continue
Commodities, Food & Agri

Softs volatility to continue


Uncertainty due to the impact of El Nino and broader weather events suggest soft commodity prices are likely to remain elevated into 2024

Warren Patterson

Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism
Report Commodities, Food & Agri

Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism


Supportive fundamentals, lingering geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve easing suggest the complex will trend higher next year

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

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Tags

WTIWheatUS oil productionTTFSugarSoybeansSoftsSanctionsOPEC+Oil demandOilNatural gasMetalsLNGHenry HubGrains

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