Key events in developed markets next week
With companies shutting their doors and laying-off staff, the initial jobless report will be the main data release for markets. 75% of the population are now under stay-at-home orders and with the possibility of this lasting into May, we could see unemployment hit 15% in the coming months
US: Covid -19 continues to take its toll on the economy
Once again, initial jobless claims will be the main data release for markets. Containment measures to try and stem the spread of Covid-19 mean shutdowns are spreading across the country with 75% of the population now under stay-at-home orders. The result is that companies are increasingly shutting their doors and laying-off staff. We look for another reading around the three million mark for initial claims this week. With risks skewed towards the containment measures lasting into May, we would not be surprised to see unemployment hit 15% in coming months with our best guess being that the economy contracts 40% in 2Q.
We also have consumer confidence readings, which are likely to fall further due to rising unemployment, economic uncertainty and falling asset prices. Meanwhile inflation looks set to fall sharply led by a sharp plunge in gasoline prices from $2.47/gallon at the end of February to $1.98/gallon at the end of March.
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Our view on this week’s key events This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articlesThis publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more