ASEAN morning bytes
General market tone: Risk-off.
Investors will likely book gains and pull back given renewed US-China trade and global growth fears.
EM Space: Wait and see as leaders opt not to meet before March
- General Asia: Risk-off sentiment will dominate Friday’s trading after growth forecasts have been lowered in Europe given ongoing trade negotiations between major economies. Meanwhile, investors are also now growing anxious on the trade front with Trump confirming that his meeting with President Xi will not happen until after the end of trade truce on 1 March.
- Indonesia: Bank Indonesia reported that the fall in gross international reserves (GIR) to $120.1 bn in January from $120.65 bn was due to maturing external debt payments. Latest GIR level covers about 6.7 months of imports and 6.5 months of imports and debt payment, while BI assesses the economic outlook continuing to be sound.
- Philippines: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) left the policy rate at 4.75% even as the central bank pared its inflation forecasts. It sees 2019 inflation settling at 3.07% (vs. 3.18% earlier) on expectations of lower oil prices, the base effects, and stable food supply. The BSP made no mention of the reserve requirement ratio although we continue to expect a RRR cut this month. Meanwhile, gross international reserves continued to climb with the January reading now at $82.1 bn, up from $79.2bn in the previous month and worth up to 7.2 months of imports.
What to look out for: Developments on trade
- Hong Kong PMI (8 February)
- Thailand GIR (8 February)
- Indonesia current account (8 February)
- Fed Bullard speaks (8 February)
Download
Download article
8 February 2019
Good MornING Asia - 8 February 2019 This bundle contains 5 articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).