ASEAN Morning Bytes 12 September 2018
General Market Tone: Risk Off. International theme: China throws a flag on the field, calls In the WTO. EM Space: Renewed concerns about the trade to force dealers to sidelines
International theme: China throws a flag on the field, calls In the WTO
- Canada has expressed interest in giving in to concessions on their dairy tariffs in exchange for the US pulling back on their hard line stance on entry into Canadian media and with regard to rules on conflict resolution in the future for NAFTA deals. The new deadline for the US-Canada talks is October 1 2018.
- China has thrown a flag on the field, calling in the WTO to settle a 2013 case with the US regarding "dumping" calculations. China had won the previous case with the WTO, causing Trump to sour on the organization and calling them to "shape up". This comes at the heels of Trump's indication that even more tariffs were in the pipeline should China not cooperate.
EM Space: Renewed Concerns About Trade To Force Dealers To Sidelines Anew
- General Asia: Asian markets will likely revert to full risk on mode with investors probably reacting to China's latest play in the ongoing US-China trade dispute. By calling on the WTO to enforce a 2013 ruling, China hopes to put the US on the backfoot, showing that they would make good on their promise to retaliate against any stiff trade sanctions from the US.
- Malaysia: Financial markets reopen after two days of public holiday. The ringgit is likely to be in for some weakness in catch-up with other Asian currencies over last two trading sessions as EM sell-off continues.
- Indonesia: South Korea and Indonesia signed deals of up to $6.2Bn at a bilateral meeting in Korea. Most of the deals were in the power sector as Indonesia looks to meet rising demand although initial reports show that some of the 6 signed deals were previously reported.
- Singapore: July retail sales are due. Weak automobile sales this year kept the headline growth virtually flat in the first half of 2018. July wasn’t any better with 29% YoY (39% MoM) fall in new motor vehicle registrations.
- Philippines: July trade data confirmed a widening of the deficit to $3.55Bn as imports ballooned by 31.6% year-on-year while exports managed a meager 0.3% expansion. All subsectors of the import sector saw double-digit growth, showing stark demand for foreign currency to feed the growing economy. Exports did see a decent 5.2% growth in its mainstay electronics subsector but this was only barely able to lift the entire portfolio into the green. President Duterte opted to conduct an interview over a state media channel in lieu of addressing the nation with various topics discussed ranging from his cancellation of an amnesty order for a Senator to Martial Law.
- Super Typhoon Mangkhut is set to hit the Philippines on Wednesday which could bring about widespread damage to the Northern Island of Luzon, where most of the crop production takes place. This could exacerbate price pressures in the Philippines as the harvest season is just about to begin.
What To Look Out For: US PPI and Fed Bullard Speaks
- US PPI inflation 9/12/2018
- EZ ECB meeting 9/13/2018
- US CPI inflation 9/13/2018
- US Retail sales 9/14/2018
- US-China trade negotiations (deadline: end of September)
- Argentina-IMF credit line request (on-going)
Download
Download article
12 September 2018
Good MornING Asia - 12 September 2018 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).